Southern California is preparing for the arrival of Tropical Storm Rachel, expected to make landfall near the California-Mexico border early Sunday. However, coastal communities across the region got a preview of the storm's potential on Friday, with significant flooding already reported in areas from Newport Beach to Long Beach.
The National Weather Service office in San Diego issued a rare tropical storm watch for much of San Diego County on Friday, including cities like San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, and Oceanside. This marks only the second time such a watch has been issued in California, indicating the possibility of tropical storm-force winds within the next 48 hours. Forecasters warn the storm could damage unanchored structures, snap tree branches, and create hazardous driving conditions on elevated roadways.
Rachel’s approach is unusual, as tropical storms typically weaken in the cooler waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. However, a marine heat wave and existing El Niño conditions have kept ocean temperatures 10 to 13 degrees higher than normal, providing an environment conducive to Rachel’s strengthening. UC Agriculture and Natural Resources climate scientist Daniel Swain noted that this event is being made possible by a coincidence of an early low-pressure trough off the California coast and what he called "record warm" ocean temperatures.
NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Ariel Cohen explained that even with the storm's center well south of Los Angeles County, a significant swell from both the south and west will bring coastal flooding concerns from Friday through Tuesday, with Sunday expected to be the peak. South-facing beaches are particularly at risk this weekend.
Friday’s flooding offered a stark warning of what’s to come. On the Balboa Peninsula in Newport Beach, streets were inundated with at least a foot of water during high tide. Councilman Joe Stapleton described it as "the worst I’ve seen it in my 20 years on the Peninsula." City officials reported that a massive swell, double its initial prediction, blasted through 20-foot berms at the Wedge, washing out roads from 21st to 6th Street. Newport Beach spokesperson Georgia Rios called the swell "very unprecedented" and warned that Sunday is forecast to be even worse, prompting the city to declare a local emergency and urge residents to pick up sandbags.
Further south in Laguna Beach, Coast Highway and Broadway were inundated by large waves and high tide, transforming typically sandy sections of Main Beach into a sea of water. San Onofre State Beach also saw its access road damaged, leading to parking issues for beachgoers at the iconic surf spot, which has already experienced significant coastal erosion in recent years.
Long Beach, which has already sustained damage from a series of hurricanes this season, was hit again on Friday. Powerful waves crumbled large sections of the boardwalk on the peninsula and left several homes with severe structural damage. City spokesperson Laath Martin noted that the city has experienced "three storms back pretty much back to back to back," an unusual occurrence. Two properties, including a duplex, have been red-tagged, and three others were yellow-tagged following damage from Hurricane Marie, which hit ahead of Rachel’s arrival. Long Beach has distributed over 7,500 sandbags as residents brace for more, with Martin expecting additional damage.
Across Southern California, the highest chances of rain are anticipated between Sunday morning and Monday night. Los Angeles County is expected to see light to moderate rain, ranging from about a quarter-inch to an inch, with more in the San Gabriel Mountains. Rain rates are not expected to be excessive, making debris flow and landslides unlikely, according to Cohen.
Orange and San Diego counties are forecast to receive half an inch to an inch of rain in coastal areas through early next week, with higher elevations like Big Bear and Julian potentially getting up to an inch and a half. The Mojave Desert and the Inland Empire, however, could see more significant precipitation. The National Weather Service warns of a moderate (40%) chance of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding in areas such as San Diego, El Cajon, Palm Springs, and Twentynine Palms, where numerous flash floods are likely, and the San Diego River near Fashion Valley could reach minor flood stage. A lower 15% chance of flash flooding extends to Oceanside, San Clemente, Riverside, and San Bernardino, with a 5% chance in Huntington Beach, Santa Ana, Long Beach, Anaheim, Victorville, and Barstow.
