Southern California beaches are once again facing dangerous conditions this week, with forecasters warning of high surf, significant erosion, and potential coastal flooding. The Pacific continues its unusually active season, as Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys churn warm waters and direct more southerly swells toward the shoreline.
The most impactful swell is expected to hit the region’s coastline through Monday and Tuesday. According to the National Weather Service, wave heights could reach 4 to 7 feet in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Along the Santa Barbara south coast, waves are forecast to be 3 to 5 feet, while the notoriously powerful Wedge in Newport Beach could see heights as high as 7 feet.
These substantial waves will coincide with astronomical high tides occurring in the late morning hours of Monday and Tuesday. The forecast indicates these tides will likely reach around 7 feet. This is nearly a foot higher than usual, a consequence of the ongoing strong El Niño pattern, which the National Weather Service explains is responsible for elevating both sea surface temperatures and sea levels.
The cumulative effect of recent swells means some south-facing beaches are particularly vulnerable. Locations such as Long Beach, Malibu, and Catalina Island’s Avalon Bay have already sustained erosion, according to the forecast. The National Weather Service warns that localized structure damage is a possibility, along with shallow seawater flooding over low-lying beach walkways, parking lots, and even roads.
This isn't the first time Southern California has seen such impacts this season. Strong surf just last weekend already caused significant issues, including blasting through a seawall in Long Beach, creating a massive sinkhole at a Malibu home, and damaging several residences in Dana Point.
The current conditions are part of a larger trend, according to National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Oravec. He noted that the Pacific has been unusually active this season, with storm activity running above average during what is typically the peak of hurricane season. This pattern, Oravec added, is consistent with El Niño years, which often bring an increase in tropical storms and hurricanes to the Pacific.
Regarding Hurricane Polo specifically, it is expected to reach Mexico on Monday after crossing Baja California. Its trajectory could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of the American Southwest later in the week. Experts find it unusual for an intense storm to remain a strong hurricane all the way into Baja, but Polo is being sustained by warm ocean temperatures that are helping it retain its structure and strength. The Mexican navy has prepared personnel and humanitarian aid in the ports of Guaymas and Mazatlan, deploying three vessels to assist coastal communities that may be isolated by the storm.
Beyond Polo and Odalys, other significant Pacific weather is in play. Hurricane Nolo is currently moving away from Hawaii after delivering strong winds and heavy rains to the Big Island over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is also tracking Tropical Storm Rachel, which recently formed in the eastern Pacific off Mexico's southwest coast. Rachel has the potential to send additional swells toward Southern California early next week, most likely impacting the region after Sunday.
As beachgoers contend with the surf, inland Southern California will be experiencing a shift in temperature. Forecasters are calling for 3 to 8 degrees of warming across the Los Angeles region on Tuesday. This means most coastal and valley areas are expected to reach the 80s, with the warmest valleys potentially notching temperatures in the lower 90s. The mountains and far interior could see an additional 3 to 6 degrees of warming on Wednesday, and there's a 40% chance that the warmest valleys could even reach triple digits by Friday or Saturday, prompting likely heat advisories.
Adding to the mix, a widespread offshore wind event is forecast for Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected through the Interstate 5 corridor and an area encompassing a few miles on either side of the Ventura and Los Angeles county lines. Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, noted that humidity levels in interior valleys and mountains are expected to drop with these winds, but will creep back up by Thursday, reaching 40% to 60%. By California standards, this can feel "a bit muggy."
