Southern California is gearing up for a series of exceptionally high tides beginning this week, with coastal flood warnings and advisories in effect for much of the region. From San Diego to San Luis Obispo, residents and officials are preparing for inundation of low-lying areas and further beach erosion.
The National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood warning for San Diego and Orange counties, which goes into effect Sunday morning and lasts through Thursday afternoon. Forecasters anticipate "significant coastal flooding" that could impact homes, businesses, and vital infrastructure, alongside morning shoreline erosion throughout the period. A coastal flood advisory covers Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties during the same timeframe, where significant to moderate beach erosion is expected, and isolated damage to structures from seawater is possible.
This isn't just another high tide. The forecast points to an unprecedented confluence of factors driving these elevated water levels. The arrival of an El Niño off the coast of Peru, an unusually active hurricane season in the eastern Pacific, and a months-long marine heat wave that has warmed local waters are all contributing. Add to that a particular alignment of the Earth, sun, and moon—a phenomenon seen only once every two decades—and the result is a system poised to deliver record-breaking tides.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UC Agriculture and Natural Resources, noted that "It's likely to get worse before it gets better." This week's event may be a precursor, as even higher tides are projected around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Martin Luther King Jr. Day, especially if they coincide with strong winter storms.
Local ocean temperatures are a major factor. Water at Scripps Pier in La Jolla recently hit around 77 degrees, well above the typical maximum of 70 degrees for the year. Even last Thursday, surface temperatures were about 73 degrees, significantly warmer than the average of 66 for this time of year. This warmer water expands, contributing an additional 1.25 to 1.75 feet to actual tides beyond what's predicted by just the celestial alignment, according to the National Weather Service. Reinhard Flick, a researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, called this situation "unprecedented, especially for this length of time," noting water levels have been at least "half a foot above the prediction for months."
These conditions mean tides could break modern-day records in San Diego and Orange counties, potentially reaching 7.5 to 8 feet or even higher above baseline levels, adjusted for the hot ocean. An El Niño-fueled Kelvin wave is also pushing warmer ocean waters toward the Southern California shoreline, further boosting the risk.
Many areas have already felt the ocean's power this year. The Long Beach Peninsula saw its historic boardwalk damaged and homes affected. Newport Beach’s Balboa Peninsula experienced intense flooding. Dana Point suffered damage to beachfront homes, decks, and walls. In Malibu, a sinkhole threatens a home, and ocean waters have menaced road access to Point Dume Beach, known locally as Westward Beach. Carlsbad State Beach has seen parts wash away, leading to the closure of the Tamarack day-use parking lot, while severe erosion at Newport Beach's The Wedge has exposed decades-old buried infrastructure.
Areas that have already sustained damage are particularly vulnerable to these new high tides. Todd Hall, a warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Oxnard, explained that any additional flooding "exacerbates the issue because the damage is already there." For instance, Highway 1 near Point Mugu in Ventura County, which was weakened by water getting underneath the roadway, is now more susceptible, prompting crews to install boulders for protection. Caltrans has also secured emergency funding to address a large crack in the slope below Pacific Coast Highway near Crystal Cove’s Moro Beach section.
Given the clear warnings, officials are urging residents to take precautions. Doug George, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, emphasized that "The warning and advisories are real. People should take them seriously because conditions are favorable for flooding." Newport Beach has already declared a local emergency and activated its emergency operations center, reinforcing sand berms, preparing pumps and tide valves, and positioning resources for flood prevention and response.
