Southern California is not in the path of Hurricane Polo or Hurricane Odalys, but swells generated by Polo are expected to bring coastal flooding and significant beach erosion to parts of the region early next week. Forecasters said Wednesday that the greatest threat remains along the coast, where increasing south swells are anticipated to begin late Sunday and peak Monday and Tuesday.
The National Weather Service (NWS) clarified that current forecasts show Hurricane Polo turning north and east toward Baja California Sur, with no models indicating Polo or Odalys will reach Southern California. The NWS stated there are "exactly zero solutions" that bring either of these tropical systems to the local coastline.
The weather agency predicts elevated swells from Hurricane Polo, with potential impacts peaking on Monday and Tuesday. Forecasters have high confidence in tide predictions reaching near 7 feet during the late morning hours from Monday through Wednesday. However, there is low to moderate confidence regarding surf height, as it depends heavily on Polo’s track, which has not yet been definitively determined.
Areas of particular concern include the Peninsula and Belmont Shore in Long Beach, as well as Avalon and Malibu. The NWS indicates a high chance that coastal flood advisories will be issued for Monday and Tuesday. This could lead to shallow seawater flooding on low-lying walkways, parking lots, and roads, with significant beach erosion also possible.
There is a lower chance of more severe flooding that could trigger coastal flood warnings. Such warnings would imply seawater potentially affecting structures, along with more widespread impacts to walkways, parking lots, and roads, and expected significant beach erosion. Uncertainty over Hurricane Polo’s exact track and intensity continues to influence these predictions.
Forecasters reiterated that the primary concern for Southern California is the impact on beaches from increasing south swells, peaking early next week. While a stray shower cannot be entirely ruled out, most forecast models suggest a trough moving through the region will push any significant tropical moisture south and east of Los Angeles County.
Before the swells arrive, Southern California residents can expect warm and generally quiet weather through Saturday. High temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. There’s a 20% to 40% chance that warmer valleys will reach 100 degrees, while downtown Los Angeles faces a 60% to 70% chance of hitting 90 degrees each day for the next three days. A cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday as a trough makes its way onshore over Northern California.
