Southern California’s beaches are preparing for another potential round of dangerous, high surf and significant erosion, fueled by a pair of Pacific hurricanes. Though Hurricanes Polo and Odalys are not expected to make landfall in California, forecasters anticipate they could stir up rough seas and send swells toward a coastline already affected by big waves this summer.
The weather changes for the region could begin as early as Sunday, but the most noticeable effects from the hurricanes are likely to be on Monday and Tuesday, according to Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. Wofford noted uncertainties, particularly regarding the potential surf size and severity of coastal flooding. Polo is currently located off southwestern Mexico, moving away from the coast, while Odalys is positioned more than 1,200 miles off the southern tip of Baja California, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
The swells generated by these hurricanes don’t appear to be tracking at an angle that would ordinarily have a significant impact on Southern California beaches, explained Sam Zuber, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. However, these swells coincide with bimonthly astronomical high tides. This means water levels will already be elevated, making erosion and flooding more probable. Zuber emphasized that "any little bump-up in the surf is going to help contribute to those impacts," and advised the public to stay away from beaches from Sunday through Tuesday.
Beyond the surf, moisture from the hurricanes is expected to increase humidity levels by 10% to 15%, Wofford said. In the San Diego forecast area, which includes Orange County and most of the Inland Empire, cloud cover is also expected to increase, leading to cooler temperatures that should make the higher humidity more tolerable, according to Zuber. There is also a less than 10% chance of showers, should one of the hurricanes track further up the coast, Wofford added.
This comes on the heels of similar severe weather impacts experienced earlier this month from swells generated by Hurricane Marie, which was also far away in the Pacific. That event caused significant damage, including blasting through a seawall in Long Beach, creating a massive sinkhole at a celebrity’s Malibu home, and damaging several homes in Dana Point. Hurricane Marie also led to a massive sinkhole in the driveway of Nicolas Cage’s oceanfront residence in Malibu, prompting the evacuation of 31 homes and a local emergency declaration. Long Beach, Laguna Beach, Dana Point, and Carlsbad also declared local emergencies at that time, citing coastal erosion and sand loss.
In anticipation of potential renewed impacts and a strong El Niño winter that favors more rain, cities across the region are taking proactive steps. Governor Gavin Newsom recently declared a statewide emergency for California to prepare for upcoming El Niño-charged storms. Ocean temperatures are already elevated due to a combination of the strengthening El Niño, current weather patterns, and long-term global warming, which melts polar ice caps, pushes tide lines higher, and provides additional energy to storms.
Newport Beach, which saw 10- to 15-foot swells from Hurricane Marie strip away large amounts of sand in areas like the Wedge, is closely monitoring the upcoming forecast, city spokesperson Georgia Rios said. Crews in Newport Beach are working to reinforce coastline berms on the Balboa Peninsula and Corona del Mar State Beach ahead of another potential round of flooding and erosion. The city is also making free sandbags available to its residents. Additionally, Newport Beach is collaborating with Orange County to accelerate the relocation of sand from the Santa Ana River mouth to its west jetties, an effort to prepare for the stronger El Niño storms expected this winter.
Further south, Dana Point city staff are closely watching swell forecasts for any potential effects from the hurricanes and are conducting ongoing emergency work, which includes the placement of rock revetment along Beach Road, as city spokesperson Jessica Spaulding noted in an email. Carlsbad is also tracking the upcoming storms and maintaining a proactive approach to its infrastructure in coastal areas, according to a statement from city manager Geoff Patnoe. These preparations highlight the ongoing efforts by Southern California communities to mitigate coastal damage and flooding risks in a season marked by elevated ocean activity.
