Two hurricanes churning hundreds of miles off Mexico are sending significant swell toward Southern California this week, promising high surf and the possibility of coastal flooding for beachgoers from Ventura to San Diego. The swells from Hurricanes Polo and Odalys are expected to combine with unusually high tides, creating hazardous conditions for much of the coastline.
In Los Angeles and Ventura counties, meteorologists with the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office forecast four- to seven-foot surf for Monday and Tuesday. Strong rip currents are also expected, alongside potential coastal flooding. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for these counties for both days.
Further south, Orange and San Diego counties are under a coastal flood advisory from Monday through Wednesday. While the hurricanes themselves are not expected to make landfall in California, their distant power is certainly making its presence felt.
"Ocean water is going to creep up higher than normal," noted Lisa Phillips, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Oxnard office. She explained that concurrent high tides and higher surf will lead to coastal flooding and erosion. Forecasters are advising beachgoers to exercise caution, consult lifeguards about swimming safety, and avoid rock jetties.
Hurricane Polo is the more intense of the two, having rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph. It’s headed for landfall in Baja California Sur on Monday, where it’s expected to unleash heavy rains and flooding. Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather & Water Extremes at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, commented that it is unusual for a storm of Polo's intensity to maintain such strength all the way into Baja, attributing this strong persistence to unusually warm ocean temperatures off Mexico.
Hurricane Odalys, with 90 mph winds, is nearly 900 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California and is expected to turn away from land and weaken. Both hurricanes developed amidst a marine heat wave and a strong El Niño pattern, which sees ocean waters warming in the central and eastern Pacific.
This isn't the first time Southern California has dealt with hurricane-generated swells this season. Earlier this month, waves from Hurricane Marie caused extensive damage to beachfront homes and eroded beaches in various parts of the region.
The Long Beach peninsula, which sustained significant damage from Hurricane Marie in early September, is once again in the path of potential impact from Polo. Crews in Long Beach have been working to reinforce portions of the boardwalk and distributing sandbags in anticipation of the incoming waves.
While the waves will be significant, Southern California itself won't be seeing much in the way of direct storm effects. Ralph predicts that as Polo reaches Mexico, the region will likely experience some unusual clouds and a few isolated showers, being on the storm’s outer edge. The more substantial rain from Polo is expected to fall farther east, particularly in Arizona and New Mexico, and could even provide a small boost to the Colorado River’s depleted reservoirs.
