Southern Californians making their Labor Day weekend plans might want to keep a close eye on the forecast, as Tropical Storm Marie, currently churning far off the coast, could bring some unexpected weather to the region.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Marie was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph, about 1,300 miles southeast of San Diego. It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday night, then weaken over the weekend, by which point it should be about 775 miles southwest of San Diego. While forecasters agree a direct hurricane landfall in California is out of the question, there's a slim, 10% chance of a tropical storm making landfall, according to UC climate scientist Daniel Swain.
Most computer models suggest Marie will veer to the west of the Baja California peninsula and out into the open ocean. Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist for the National Hurricane Center, noted that Marie is "most likely to take a track to the northwest, moving away from land," though a slim chance remains it could move farther north towards Southern California.
Despite the distance, some impacts are more probable. Forecasters warn of a high chance of large waves and strong rip currents for south-facing beaches from Saturday into Tuesday, with Sunday and Monday expected to see peak swells. Areas like the Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Malibu, Point Mugu, and Avalon on Catalina Island could be particularly susceptible to high surf, possibly combining with higher-than-normal tides to cause coastal flooding. The National Weather Service advises beachgoers to ensure lifeguards are present and to stay clear of the water's edge, rocks, and jetties due to an increased risk of ocean drownings.
Rainfall is also a possibility, though its intensity varies across the region. The National Weather Service office in Oxnard, covering Los Angeles and Ventura counties, predicts a 50-60% chance of widespread light rain and a 10-20% chance of moderate-to-heavy rain between Saturday and Tuesday. They issued a straightforward advisory: "Start making backup plans for wet events," particularly for Sunday through Tuesday. In San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties, forecasters anticipate "widespread shower activity this weekend," primarily on Sunday, with rainfall expected to be less than an inch.
Counterintuitively, there's also a scenario where Marie could increase fire weather danger before any rain arrives. Kristan Lund, a meteorologist with the Oxnard weather service office, warns of a 10-15% chance of moderate-to-strong easterly winds, raising wildfire risks and the potential for downed trees. The National Weather Service office in San Diego expresses high confidence in fire weather conditions for the Santa Ana and San Bernardino mountains, the Inland Empire, and the mountains of Riverside and San Diego counties, as well as desert areas. Given the inherent uncertainty in tracking these distant systems, forecasters recommend staying tuned for updates as the holiday weekend approaches.
